Global demand for scandium oxide will reach 91 tonnes a year by 2030 and 194 tonnes by 2035, according to an updated market study prepared by EY-Parthenon and released in summary form by Scandium Canada Ltd. (TSXV: SCD) on July 28, 2026. The entire world currently produces 60 to 80 tonnes annually.
The study was commissioned and paid for by Scandium Canada. It was delivered in June 2026 and updates a first version prepared for the company in 2022. The company says it ordered the update for two purposes: to underpin the assumptions in the pre-feasibility study for its Crater Lake project in Nunavik, Québec, and as part of due diligence for the acquisition of Ferreol Technologies, since renamed Scalium+ Inc., which closed on June 29, 2026. No purchase price for that acquisition is given in the release.
In what EY-Parthenon calls its most likely scenario, demand keeps rising to 706 tonnes a year by 2050. Supply, the consultancy projects, reaches only about 266 tonnes by then. The gap opens in 2035 and widens each year afterwards.
The projected growth is concentrated in a few end uses. Aerospace demand is forecast to reach 243 tonnes a year by 2050 on a 26 percent compound annual growth rate between 2030 and 2050. Automotive is put at 128 tonnes (22 percent), defence at 92 tonnes (23 percent) and advanced manufacturing at 17 percent growth. Energy, currently the largest single end use, grows more slowly at 8 percent but still reaches 222 tonnes.
Those three fastest-growing sectors use scandium as an alloying element in aluminium rather than as an oxide.
On the supply side, the study notes that scandium is still produced only as a byproduct of mining other metals, with no primary producer anywhere in the world as of June 2026. That means output responds to the economics of the host metal, not to scandium prices. Supply is also concentrated: EY-Parthenon estimates Chinese production at 30 to 50 tonnes a year, or roughly half to 60 percent of the global total.
Scandium Canada is positioning Crater Lake as a primary scandium source with a planned capacity of 91 tonnes of scandium oxide a year. The company states that figure is its own planning assumption, derived from a 500 kilogram pilot test completed in March 2025, not an independently verified production estimate.
The release contains no financial information — no capital cost for Crater Lake, no cash position, no timeline to a construction decision. It also does not report any scandium oxide or alloy sales. Claims about the Scalium® alloy line, including strength results said to be up to 45 percent above typical 7075 aerospace aluminium, rest on internal testing by the former Ferreol Technologies team under controlled conditions and remain subject to further testing for commercial applications.
Source: Newsfile
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